Summary Bitcoin's price volatility has been impacted by Trump’s tariff policies, recession fears and Mt. Gox Transfers. Glassnodes’s accumulation trend score shows shifts in investor sentiment and increased selling pressure. Mt. Gox transfers are affecting markets but are overshadowed by tariff concerns. Bitcoin’s ( BTC-USD ) rollercoaster ride continues as President Donald Trump and his tariff policies ramp up and weigh on overall market sentiment. The bitcoin price has been flirting with the $80,000 per bitcoin handle, dragging down the wider crypto market that’s now erased $1 trillion of value in just a month. The hype around President Trump and his pro-crypto policies have faded as the effects of a global trade war take hold of financial markets. The tariff proposals by President Trump have for now cast a shadow over markets with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stating that if people become more focused on supporting their own country, often referred to as nationalism, it could lead to higher inflation. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as some might find it appealing, but it would likely have an impact on prices. Fears of a recession have also ramped up and thus weighing on crypto markets. Goldman Sachs economists have increased the chances of a recession in the next year from 15% to 20%. They pointed to Trump’s economic policies as the main concern. Yardeni Research economists also raised their recession estimate, from 20% to 35%, blaming Trump’s rapid actions with executive orders, firings, and tariffs. Crypto Heatmap, March 13, 2025 Source: TradingView Was Mt. Gox Responsible for the Recent Selloff? According to Lookonchain, Mt. Gox moved 11,834 bitcoins this month, including 11,502 to an unknown wallet. A recent transfer of $1.07 billion in March, followed by a complex repayment process starting in July 2023 and ending on October 31, has raised questions. Why now? The timing may be tied to the legal details of creditor repayments. Every action from Mt. Gox still rattles the crypto world, even years after its 2014 bankruptcy. The platform still holds significant influence over the market. However, so far, no large sell-offs have followed these repayments. Creditors, many of whom are experienced “hodlers,” appear to take a cautious approach rather than panicking. The extension of the repayment deadline to October 2024, announced at the end of 2023, has brought some relief. But the market operates on fear and instinct, and Mt. Gox continues to stir uncertainty. Fear, after all, often builds on itself. Some bitcoins were moved to a hot wallet, which is often used for quick access to funds and could suggest a future sale. However, most of the bitcoins ended up in a “new wallet,” likely as a temporary step before being distributed further. This seems to be a cautious approach rather than an aggressive one. Still, the market tends to overreact, treating every unknown wallet as a potential threat and every transaction as a warning sign. Thus, the question is whether this was the reason for the selloff in crypto markets. While I believe this played a part, the ongoing pressure on Bitcoin prices is more indicative of fear across markets rather than a Mt.Gox situation. Looking back at the market’s reaction during previous Mt. Gox moves, and it is clear that the moves did not have a long-lasting impact on crypto prices. The current decline and lack of a sustainable recovery suggest a different dynamic this time around. Glassnode – The Week On-Chain Bitcoin’s price cycles move between phases of buying (accumulation) and selling (distribution), with money shifting between different groups of investors over time. The Accumulation Trend Score measures these changes, with scores near 1 (dark purple) showing strong buying activity and scores near 0 (yellow) showing selling activity. The chart shows that after periods of heavy accumulation, selling phases often follow, leading to weaker price movements. The most recent selling phase started in January 2025, matching Bitcoin’s drop from $108,000 to $93,000. Right now, the Accumulation Trend Score is below 0.1, indicating ongoing strong selling pressure. Source: Glassnode The Accumulation Trend Score tracks how total Bitcoin balances on the blockchain are changing. However, it is influenced more by the actions of big players and doesn’t show where the Bitcoin was bought. While it’s useful for spotting general buying or selling trends, it doesn’t provide detailed information about key price levels where Bitcoin was acquired. The cost-basis of Short-Term Holders ((STH)) shows that market momentum has turned negative, with less demand and growing uncertainty among investors. Signs of fear-driven selling are clear, as the STH-SOPR (a measure showing profit or loss for short-term sellers) stays below 1, meaning most are selling at a loss. At the same time, STH-CDD (a measure of recent-holder activity) has jumped, showing more selling by short-term investors. This wave of selling matches the market trading near its lower range. Many recent buyers are likely feeling significant financial pressure during this time. All of the above does not currently inspire confidence for a sustained bullish move. The biggest takeaway and something which we are seeing in US Equity markets is the lack of dip-buying this time around. Not a surprise as markets are currently in a phase of capital preservation and risk aversion with no end in sight given the pending universal tariffs being proposed by the Trump administration. It looks like a bumpy road ahead, so strap in and enjoy the ride. Technical Analysis – BTC/USD Bitcoin from a technical standpoint on the daily timeframe remains in a bearish trend. A daily candle close above the 90000 handle will be needed for a change in structure and this remains some distance away at present. Today it was the 200-day MA which served as a significant area of resistance and capped yesterday's attempted rally to the upside as well. The decline today, found support at the 80000 handle with a brief foray below being met with some buying pressure. However, the daily candle closed as a bearish engulfing candle, which hints at further downside ahead. Looking at the potential of a break to the downside, and we have support at the 78197 handle before the 75000 handle comes into focus. Below the 75000 mark, the swing high from October 2024 at 73777 may be a key area to keep an eye on. A move higher from current prices may find resistance at 82133 and the 200-day MA at 83636. Next focus will shift to the 85000 handle and the 90000 handle respectively. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, March 13, 2024 Source: TradingView.com Support 80000 78197 75000 Resistance 82133 83636 (200-day MA) 85000 Original Post
