The recent price action of Bitcoin has caused many a sleepless night for analysts and investors. Multiple indicators have started to light up, and not in a good way, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency is entering a bear market. All the while, the world’s largest digital currency continues to face mounting internal and external pressures. Flattening buy-side demand, Fed policies, and risk-off sentiment are just some of the bear signs we’re seeing today. Let’s analyze these and some of the other key signals that have many a Bitcoin bull on his or her heels. Signs Pointing to a Bear Market The first sign that Bitcoin might be entering a bear market comes from the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, which tracks the movement of assets between spot and derivative exchanges. This indicator shows that Bitcoin’s market is in a corrective phase, giving signals that the momentum is slowing. As trading activity cools, the possibility of a bear market increases, notably as large investors, or whales, begin to reduce their exposure by selling off their holdings into the market. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is another key signal. The MVRV ratio has shifted from positive to negative territory, signaling a decline in Bitcoin’s momentum. A negative MVRV ratio has historically suggested that Bitcoin was entering a downtrend. It reflects a growing number of investors who are now at a loss and makes clear that there’s much lower appetite for buying Bitcoin at current levels. In addition, the Market Cycle indicator is signaling some warnings. By the indicator’s assessment, Bitcoin now occupies the nascent state of a bear market, with the corrective phase in its price following the all-time high in plastering the sun-baked seas of November 2021. Accompanying this recent downturn in Bitcoin’s fortunes by our lights is a major drying-up of liquidity, with the total inflow for the cryptocurrency going from $135 billion in December to a mere $4 billion today. Besides these technical signals, major institutional investors and Bitcoin whales have been actively selling into the market. Information from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin miners have just realized profits that exceed $27 million. This signals that even long-term holders are cashing in at current prices. And what about the market’s biggest players? Traditionally, Bitcoin whales have been seen as the market’s major profit-takers. Profit-taking by them has exceeded $260 million. This is also not a sign of trust in the current price. Support Levels to Watch: Will Bitcoin Bounce Back? Bearish signs notwithstanding, Bitcoin has some key support levels it has historically respected that might provide a cushion if its price continues to decline. Several indicators say to watch the $66,000 to $69,000 zone as a crucial potential pivot for Bitcoin. IOMAP (in/out of the money around price) from IntoTheBlock shows 750,000 investors bought 313,000 Bitcoin around the $69,000 mark. This is a big base of support below $69,000. This is confirmed from another angle by Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows very strong support at approximately $69,354. Both these on-chain indicators are signalling a lot of buying interest at these levels. Has #Bitcoin $BTC entered a bear market? Let's dive in! — Ali (@ali_charts) March 18, 2025 Along with these on-chain signs, the Mayer Multiple, which gauges the present price of Bitcoin against its historical trend, indicates that the $66,000 area is a significant support level. The price of Bitcoin fell beneath its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) not long ago, and when that happens, it can mean the price is about to weaken. But if the price can recover the $66,000 to $69,000 zone, it can be seen as setting the price up for a nice rebound. What’s Next for Bitcoin? The $46,000 Line in the Sand Examining past downturns can reveal how Bitcoin might behave in a subsequent downturn. Since 2011, Bitcoin has had five significant downturns, where it has retraced (or fallen back) to below a key support level. Each time, after falling through the 50-week SMA, it has gone on to fall back to the 200-week SMA. Currently, the 200-week SMA is just about at $46,000, which many traders might consider a very real “next stop” for Bitcoin’s price if it drops much further. Note that should Bitcoin actually reach this 200-week SMA in the near future, it would correspond to a rather staggering 67% decline from current prices. Even with these signs of a downturn, a resurgence in value could still be in the cards for Bitcoin. One reason for this is the swelling global liquidity, which historically has been linked to price recoveries for Bitcoin around mid-April. If this upward trend in liquidity continues and Bitcoin is able to retake crucial support levels, we just might see a recovery in the market. A Route to 111,000 Dollars? Although the present trend might imply that we are in a phase of consolidation or decline, there still exists a possibility for Bitcoin to not only recover but also to reach new heights that would surpass its previous all-time high. For this to occur, however, it is necessary for Bitcoin to reclaim $93,700 and establish it as a support level. Analysts are then divided in their estimates as to where Bitcoin might go next if it achieves that key first step. Some believe that the next target is $111,000—an estimate that seems to be getting a bit more traction. To conclude, Bitcoin finds itself at a crucial decision point. The signs are all too clear and point to the market being in a bearish phase. The indicators all give a reading of negative momentum. There’s apparently a decrease in capital being funneled into the darling of the cryptocurrency world. Moreover, it seems large investors have taken it upon themselves to sell, sell, sell! Despite all this, there are some very, very important price levels that are currently being tested—$66,000 and $69,000 to be exact. These price levels are so crucial that if Bitcoin can maintain itself above these two lines, it will still have an opportunity to make a recovery. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news ! Image Source: jolly5xpander / 123RF // Image Effects by Colorcinch
