VanEck Mid-March 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck

Summary Bitcoin’s 30% retracement coincides with historically low futures funding rates and the longest ETF outflow streak since inception. Altcoins remain weak while Bitcoin dominance holds steady, reflecting abnormally weak bull market demand for speculative blockchain use cases. MSTR, Metaplanet, and SMLR continue expanding BTC-backed financial engineering, with MSTR acquiring 20,356 BTC and launching a $2 billion convertible note. The new REX Shares Bitcoin Convertible Bond ETF highlights the growing institutional interest in BTC treasuries. SB6 could raise interconnection costs and delays for large miners, while SB1942 would fast-track ERCOT approvals for flexible loads, creating a competitive edge for miners that generate their own power on-site. SB388’s 50% dispatchable energy mandate may drive up long-term mining costs by shifting Texas’ power mix toward fossil fuels. Bitcoin sees its second-largest retracement this cycle amid ETP outflows and weak risk appetite, as corporate treasury yield strategies emerge and Texas energy bills reshape mining. Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin. Three key takeaways for mid-February – mid-March: Key Data Threatens Bull Market: Bitcoin’s 30% retracement coincides with historically low futures funding rates and the longest ETF outflow streak since inception. Altcoins remain weak while Bitcoin ((BTC)) dominance holds steady, reflecting abnormally weak bull market demand for speculative blockchain use cases. Corporate Bitcoin Yield Strategies Scale : MSTR, Metaplanet, and SMLR continue expanding BTC-backed financial engineering, with MSTR acquiring 20,356 BTC ($1.99 billion) and launching a $2 billion convertible note. The new REX Shares Bitcoin Convertible Bond ETF highlights the growing institutional interest in BTC treasuries. Texas Energy Bills Could Reshape Mining Economics : SB6 could raise interconnection costs and delays for large miners, while SB1942 would fast-track ERCOT approvals for flexible loads, creating a competitive edge for miners that generate their own power on-site. SB388’s 50% dispatchable energy mandate may drive up long-term mining costs by shifting Texas’ power mix toward fossil fuels. Chart of the Month: A Collapse in Animal Spirits? 3-Month Futures Roll Yield Hits Multi-Year Lows as Hedge Funds Exit Basis Trade One of the most striking market sentiment indicators this month is the sharp decline in Bitcoin's funding rate, which has reached its lowest level since October 2023. The funding rate reflects the cost of borrowing to go long BTC in perpetual futures contracts. When it falls to such lows, it signals a cooling of speculative enthusiasm - what some might call a lack of “animal spirits” in the market. This decline suggests that hedge funds have largely closed out the basis trade, a common strategy where traders arbitrage the spread between spot and futures prices. While some of this may be attributed to tighter futures spreads following the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launch, broader macro uncertainty and risk management adjustments could also play a role. With lower borrowing costs, this is the lowest speculative positioning in over a year, reminiscent of the pre-ETF environment when investors were still waiting on a catalyst for renewed bullish momentum. However, while speculative fervor has clearly waned, this is far from the capitulation levels seen in the bear market depths. While the funding rate remains low, it has not flipped negative, which would indicate rare bearish periods of aggressive shorting. Instead, the market appears to be resetting expectations after the Trump trade as investors await a new catalyst to rekindle risk appetite. Bitcoin Monthly Dashboard As of March 17th, 2025 30-day avg 30 day change (%) 1 365 day change (%) Last 30 days Percentile vsall-time history (%) Bitcoin Price $88,967 -12 46 98 Daily Active Addresses 741,594 -3 -21 67 Daily New Addresses 309,731 -3 -25 56 Daily Transactions 399,582 9 7 91 Daily Inscriptions 140,976 62 13 53 Total Transfer Volume ((USD)) $63,167,619,258 -5 -1 87 Supply Active, last 180 days 26% 2 46 45 % Supply Dormant for 3+ Years 45% 0 1 64 Avg Fees ((USD)) $1.42 -14 -80 64 Avg Fees ((BTC)) 0.00002 -2 -86 4 Percent of BTC Addresses in profit 90% -7 -7 74 Unrealized profit/loss ratio 0.51 -11 -15 70 Global Power Consumption (TWh) 155 1 40 100 Total Daily BTC Miner Revenues ((USD)) $40,538,898 -20 -30 90 Total Crypto Equities' Market Cap * ((USD)) (MM) $181,909 -19 52 81 Transfer volume from Miners to Exchanges ((USD)) $5,034,007 -16 -42 84 Bitcoin Dominance 60% 3 16 90 Bitcoin Futures Annualized Basis 7% -38 -50 3 Mining Difficulty ((T)) 111 1 37 100 * DAPP market cap as a proxy, as of March 14th, 2025. 1 30 day change & 365 day change are relative to the 30-day avg, not absolute. Regional Trading MoM Change (%) YoY Change (%) Asia Hours Price Change MoM ($) 1 2 US hours Price Change MoM ($) -6 1 EU hours Price Change MoM ($) 0 3 Source: Glassnode, VanEck research as of 03/17/25. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bitcoin’s Price Action Market Sentiment Bitcoin has just experienced its second-largest correction so far this cycle, dropping ~30% peak-to-trough from $109K in January to $76.5K on March 11th, exceed only by a ~33% drop from March 2024 from ~ $74K to ~ $49K in August 2024. While Bitcoin bull markets have historically seen multiple retracements of similar or greater magnitude, this latest decline stands out for contrasting with favorable regulatory developments. Bitcoin ETFs faced their longest outflow streak since inception, losing $6.4 billion over five weeks to Trump’s tariff policies. Further, broader crypto market sentiment is unusually poor, even for a 30% bull market retracement. Unlike Bitcoin, altcoins have failed to sustain an altcoin bull market, with many already retouching their 2022-2023 bear market lows. This is evident in Bitcoin dominance, which remains mostly unchanged at ~60% this month—a sign that capital is not rotating as aggressively into other crypto assets this cycle as it did in previous cycles. Bitcoin’s Network Activity, Adoption, and Fees Transfer Volumes from Miners to Exchanges: With transfers to exchanges down 16% month-over-month, miners are holding onto their BTC treasuries, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook. Daily Inscriptions: Bitcoin inscriptions (mostly “Ordinals”) have grown 62% month-over-month, showing signs of life after an extended cooling off period in Q3 & Q4 of 2024. The Bitcoin NFT ecosystem is showing enthusiasm as Taproot Wizards announced their upcoming mint. The project aims to “make Bitcoin magical again” through initiatives surrounding Bitcoin software developments like OP_CAT, which could bring Ethereum-like smart contract functionality to Bitcoin’s blockchain. Following its $7.5M seed round in November 2023, the project raised $30M in Series A funding this February to build an ecosystem of applications using the OP_CAT Bitcoin improvement proposal. Bitcoin Futures Annualized Basis: As highlighted in the chart of the month, Bitcoin futures borrowing rates are at their historical 3rd percentile , demonstrating the extent of relative bearishness among traders. Daily Transactions: Daily transactions grew 9% month-over-month, currently at the 91st percentile of the network’s history. Total Transfer Volume: Down 5% month-over-month, USD-denominated transfer volumes remain at a healthy 87th percentile of the network’s history. This sustained volume may reflect Bitcoin’s expanding role in international trade settlements, as discussed in ‘Global Trade’. Average Transaction Fees: Transaction fees remain low in both USD (-14%) and BTC (-2%) terms, indicating that on-chain activity like Ordinals still have not driven sufficient activity to drive up costs. Global Power Consumption & Mining Difficulty: Bitcoin’s steadily growing global power consumption ticked up 1% this month, remaining at the 100th percentile of the metric’s history as miners continue to energize new capacity. Total Crypto Equities Market Cap: Demonstrating high beta to Bitcoin, crypto equities dropped 19% this month as markets responded to tariffs and crypto selloffs. Regulatory and Geopolitical Developments Despite this month’s price correction, Bitcoin’s macro narrative continues to strengthen, with governments, institutions, and emerging markets making strategic moves into digital assets. Key developments across U.S. regulation, international trade, and corporate adoption suggest that Bitcoin’s role in global markets is expanding. Washington’s Crypto Reset In a landmark policy move on March 6th, Donald Trump officially established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile , using Bitcoin and other digital assets previously obtained from criminal and civil asset forfeiture proceedings. The administration’s decision to hold, rather than auction, seized Bitcoin signals a fundamental shift in how the U.S. government views BTC—as a strategic asset rather than just confiscated property. While the government has historically liquidated seized BTC through public auctions, this policy pivot suggests that the U.S. recognizes Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset alongside gold and foreign currency reserves. The White House is weighing further Bitcoin accumulation for the Reserve. Reports from a closed-door roundtable hosted by the Bitcoin Policy Institute suggest that the White House is considering direct Bitcoin accumulation as part of a broader Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile initiative. According to multiple attendees, Bo Hines, Executive Director of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets, stated that any such purchases would be made in a “budget-neutral way that doesn’t cost taxpayers a dime.” This would mark a major shift in U.S. policy if confirmed, solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a government store of value and adding to its list of similarities to gold. Echoing the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s roundtable, Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced legislation aimed at establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve , which would rely on diversifying existing funds from reserve banks and the Fed’s gold certificates. Separately, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the GENIUS Act —a bill with bipartisan support that would create a regulatory framework for stablecoins—as a potential precursor to broader digital asset legislation. On the enforcement front, the SEC has officially dropped charges against major crypto exchanges including Coinbase, Cumberland DRW, and Robinhood, signaling the end of its aggressive enforcement campaign against the industry. This regulatory shift and the emergence of Bitcoin-focused policy initiatives suggest that Washington’s "war on crypto" is over for now. Global Trade Russia has begun using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to settle oil trade transactions with China and India to bypass Western sanctions. While Russia has explored alternative payment rails since being cut off from SWIFT, this move signals an increasing reliance on digital assets to facilitate cross-border commerce. Separately, the Bank of Russia has proposed a new regulatory framework allowing qualified investors to conduct crypto transactions within a special three-year experimental regime. While Russia remains officially skeptical of Bitcoin as legal tender, this framework suggests a growing recognition of its utility in international trade, as we predicted in our long-term 2050 Bitcoin Outlook . In Argentina, the securities regulator has approved a new framework for virtual asset service providers (VASPs), allowing licensed firms to operate legally within the country. Notably, Coinbase has secured a license, strengthening its presence in Latin America’s fastest-growing Bitcoin economy. Institutional Adoption Traditional financial institutions are continuing to expand their digital asset services in Europe. Germany’s Deutsche Börse announced it will offer Bitcoin and Ether custody and settlement services for institutional clients beginning in April 2025. Similarly, Spanish bank BBVA received approval from Spain’s securities regulator to offer Bitcoin and Ether trading services. Abu Dhabi’s MGX fund has announced a $2 billion investment in Binance, reinforcing the UAE’s position as a major crypto hub. MGX already backs G42, an AI firm that received a $1.5 billion investment from Microsoft, which in turn leases data center space from WULF, a U.S.-listed Bitcoin miner. This highlights the growing intersection between Bitcoin mining, AI infrastructure, and sovereign capital investments that we have increasingly covered over the past year . Bitcoin Treasury Corporate Adoption The trend of corporate treasury allocations to Bitcoin continues to accelerate, with multiple firms announcing new BTC holdings: Rumble ( RUM ) completed its first $17.1 million Bitcoin purchase, officially marking its entry into its new BTC treasury strategy. Brazilian cashback business Meliuz allocated 10% of its free cash flow (over $4M) to Bitcoin, becoming the first Brazilian company to adopt the Bitcoin treasury strategy pioneered by MicroStrategy. MSTR acquired 20,356 additional BTC for $1.99 billion, boosting its holdings to 499,096 BTC as of February 23rd. To continue financing its Bitcoin yield strategy—a strategy wherein the company aims to maximize Bitcoin per share through aggressive capital raises and acquisitions, targeting a ‘BTC Yield’ metric of 6-15% annually—the company announced two offerings: a $2 billion 0% convertible senior note offering due 2029, finalized in February, and a $21 billion At-The-Market (A T M) program for its 8% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock (STRK), launched March 10, to fund further Bitcoin purchases and general corporate purposes. A VanEck strategy began acquiring MicroStrategy’s STRK on February 28th, initiating a 1.2% weight. Since inception, STRK has gained 6.59%, while MSTR common equity is down 15.22%, reflecting STRK’s relative resilience due to its fixed 8% dividend and lower direct exposure to Bitcoin price volatility compared to MSTR’s BTC-levered common stock. The launch of the first Bitcoin-related convertible bond ETF—the REX Shares Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF—illustrates the momentum that the Bitcoin treasury strategy is gaining. The ETF holds convertible debt issued by MicroStrategy and other Bitcoin-heavy firms, providing investors with exposure to BTC treasury strategies via structured debt securities. This product delivers the “Bitcoin yield” earned by the growing number of corporations adopting this strategy in an institutionally friendly package, paving the way for Bitcoin treasuries to further scale into traditional market structures. However, as noted by Strive’s Matt Cole, this fund is not advantageous from a tax perspective, as its structure as a C-Corp subjects it to double taxation—once at the fund level and again at the shareholder level. This tax burden can significantly reduce returns compared to alternatives like direct Bitcoin ownership, owning the convertible bonds directly, or investing in MicroStrategy (MSTR), potentially undermining the investment case for the ETF’s purported risk-adjusted returns. With corporate Bitcoin holdings expanding and financial markets evolving to support BTC-based debt instruments, the next logical step is to analyze how companies are structuring their Bitcoin treasuries—a topic we explore in the next section. Corporate Bitcoin Yield Strategies Source: FactSet, Company Filings as of 3/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As more corporations integrate Bitcoin into their balance sheets, we are building a database of corporate Bitcoin treasuries to analyze the impact of this emerging treasury management strategy. The summary table above covers the top nine Bitcoin-only digital asset treasuries, highlighting the growing portion of enterprise value ((EV)) derived from Bitcoin holdings. This strategy aims to grow the value of BTC holdings faster than the cost of capital through debt or equity issuance. In other words, these companies are wagering that they can enhance their enterprise value by borrowing low-cost, inflationary fiat and converting it into deflationary cryptocurrency. Metaplanet's BTC-Attributed Enterprise Value Spiked to New Highs in Q1 As of March 12th, Metaplanet's ( MTPLF ) BTC yield for the year 2025 stands at 53.2%, indicating a significant increase in the company's Bitcoin holdings relative to its share count. This metric highlights the potential benefits of strategies that leverage equity or debt issuance to acquire additional Bitcoin. Since Q2 2024 earnings when Metaplanet and Semler Scientific ( SMLR ) first reported Bitcoin on their balance, the average BTC as a % of EV has surged from 21% to 49% among leading Bitcoin yield strategists: MicroStrategy ( MSTR ), MARA Holdings ( MARA ), Riot Platforms ( RIOT ), Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific (highlighted orange in the table above). To better understand how the market values these Bitcoin-heavy firms, we invert this ratio by dividing enterprise value by the underlying Bitcoin treasury market value to calculate the Bitcoin Premium Multiple . Interpreting the Bitcoin Premium Multiple The Bitcoin Premium Multiple naturally compresses toward 1.0 as Bitcoin becomes a larger share of EV. A high multiple suggests that the market is assigning additional value beyond just BTC holdings due to speculation or the presence of other valuable business segments. A high multiple in cases where BTC dominates EV suggests that investors either believe strongly in the company’s other business assets or are speculating heavily on BTC exposure. Conversely, a low multiple suggests the market views the company primarily as a proxy for BTC, with minimal confidence in its additional business activities. For companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Block (SQ), the Bitcoin Premium Multiple is relatively meaningless because they maintain profitable core businesses that are the primary drivers of valuation. However, firms like Semler Scientific, Metaplanet, and MicroStrategy are increasingly valued based on their Bitcoin holdings as they structure their financial strategies to amplify BTC exposure. Why Some Firms Command a Higher Bitcoin Premium Multiple MicroStrategy’s First-Mover Advantage & Hedge Fund Liquidity MicroStrategy enjoys a unique valuation premium due to its first-mover advantage in corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Unlike smaller firms, MSTR has become a trading vehicle for hedge funds seeking high liquidity and volatility to execute structured financial strategies. Because of its deep access to capital markets and convertible bond issuances, institutional investors frequently use MSTR for basis trades, volatility arbitrage, and convertible debt hedging. This additional financial structuring creates an inflated valuation relative to its BTC holdings; investors aren’t just buying exposure to Bitcoin. They’re trading MSTR as a Bitcoin-adjacent financial instrument. Smaller Bitcoin Treasuries Lack This Liquidity & Institutional Demand Conversely, smaller Bitcoin treasury firms like Semler Scientific and Metaplanet (MAPL) do not benefit from this dynamic. Their relatively low liquidity and lack of convertible debt issuance mean they attract far less hedge fund participation, and thus do not enjoy MicroStrategy’s hedge fund financial structuring premium.With Bitcoin premium multiples of 1.66 and 7.36 , respectively, SMLR looks cheap compared to MAPL, which appears overvalued relative to the other Bitcoin yield plays. Core Business Profitability Still Matters Beyond financial engineering, core business profitability and debt capacity both play crucial roles in determining the Bitcoin Premium Multiple. If a company has a profitable non-BTC business, investors may assign a higher multiple if they expect those earnings to be reinvested into further Bitcoin accumulation. However, a firm’s existing debt burden is just as critical. Companies with lower debt loads have greater flexibility to raise capital or reinvest earnings without immediate financial constraints, allowing them to pursue aggressive BTC accumulation strategies. In contrast, firms already carrying high leverage may struggle to expand their Bitcoin holdings unless they can secure new financing at favorable terms. MicroStrategy’s ability to sustain its strategy stems from structured debt issuance, but smaller firms with limited debt capacity may lack the same flexibility to scale BTC purchases at the same rate. This dynamic between profitability, leverage, and Bitcoin treasury expansion is essential in evaluating a firm’s long-term ability to maintain its BTC accumulation model. Evaluating "Un-squeezed Juice" in Bitcoin-Focused Firms Another way to assess potentially mispriced Bitcoin treasuries is to look at their core business earnings power. If a company has a separate business segment—such as MicroStrategy’s software, Metaplanet’s hotel business, or Semler Scientific’s medical devices—we can estimate how much BTC they could acquire with future profits. For instance: Applying a 10-15x P/E multiple to a company’s operating income gives a rough estimate of how much capital could be redirected into BTC. If a company’s Bitcoin Premium Multiple is low, but its core business remains profitable and committed to BTC accumulation, it could indicate an undervalued BTC exposure opportunity. By combining traditional valuation methods with Bitcoin-specific metrics, investors can identify outliers where the market may be underpricing Bitcoin-heavy firms. Companies with low Bitcoin Premium Multiples and strong underlying businesses could be poised for further BTC accumulation, increasing their valuation premium over time. Texas Legislative Updates: Barriers and Opportunities for Bitcoin Miners Texas, the leading U.S. hub for Bitcoin mining, faces new legislation that could either accelerate or hinder miners' access to ERCOT's grid. Three bills—SB6, SB1942, and SB388—represent a policy shift that balances energy reliability with industrial growth. Senate Bill 1942 aims to expedite interconnections for large-scale miners, Senate Bill 6 introduces new compliance burdens, and Senate Bill 388 prioritizes dispatchable energy, potentially affecting power costs. These developments highlight Texas’s balancing act between grid reliability and supporting BTC mining growth, a key theme in Bitcoin’s evolving regulatory narrative. Bill Key Provisions Impact on BTC Miners Likelihood of Passing SB6 Requires ERCOT oversight for large loads (>75MW), mandating backup generator disclosure, remote disconnect equipment, and a $100,000 transmission study fee. Increases compliance costs and interconnection delays without expanding power supply. Delays large AI & BTC mining interconnections (>75MW) due to added fees and oversight, raises upfront costs (e.g., $100,000 fee, remote disconnect equipment), reducing NPV via extended timelines and risks (e.g., stranded assets). Moderate: Backed by grid reliability advocates but opposed by industry. SB1942 Fast-tracks ERCOT interconnection for large flexible loads (>75MW) with behind-the-meter (B T M) generation. Participants gain queue priority if they can curtail during peak demand or export power, unlocking gigawatt-scale capacity with minimal new infrastructure. Unlocks grid capacity (potentially GW-scale) for BTC mining by leveraging BTM generation during peaks, enabling faster ERCOT approvals, higher IRR, and better site valuations via queue priority. High: Growing support from energy developers and industrial consumers. SB388 Requires 50% of new ERCOT power capacity (post-2026) to be dispatchable (e.g., natural gas, nuclear). Enforces compliance via a dispatchable generation credit system (activated if May reduce reliance on low-cost renewables, potentially raising mining costs if gas prices rise. ERCOT grid supply impact is uncertain until the 2027 credits program activates. Moderate: Backed by fossil fuel interests but facing resistance from renewable advocates. For Bitcoin miners, SB1942 presents a competitive advantage by fast-tracking grid access for operations with backup power, unlocking expansion potential. SB6, however, imposes new compliance hurdles and interconnection delays, raising upfront costs. SB388’s dispatchable energy mandate could shift Texas’ power mix away from cheap renewables, potentially increasing mining electricity costs over time. With Texas at the center of the BTC mining industry, miners must navigate these policies strategically to maximize profitability. Disclosures Coin Definitions Bitcoin ((BTC)) is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator. It can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without intermediaries. Risk Considerations This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. 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